2025 NFL season: Projected stat leaders in 11 major categories

Could he surpass last season's league-leading total of 4,918 yards? Definitely possible, especially when you consider the possible ripple effect of Trey Hendrickson's contract standoff. If the All-Pro edge rusher isn't on the field for Cincinnati's defense, the offense might be asked to do even more than it was last year.

Two additional notes that stood out to me:

1. Drake Maye passes for more than 3,250 yards in 59 percent of simulations.
2. Trevor Lawrence passes for more than 3,750 yards in 61 percent.

REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:

2) Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers: 4,651

3) Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: 4,604

4) Jared Goff, Lions: 4,598

5) Brock Purdy, 49ers: 4,510

Expect Mr. Burrow once again to add a bunch of touchdowns to his league-leading yardage mark in 2025. The model projects the veteran passer to pace the NFL in scoring strikes for a second straight season, finishing in a similar range as last year (43). As for total TDs, reigning MVP Josh Allen tops the list with 41 (30 passing, 11 rushing). Some other notable totals: I forecast Lamar Jackson to finish with 39 scores (35 passing, four rushing), Jalen Hurts with 36 (26 and 10) and Jayden Daniels with 34 (28 and six).

REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:

2) Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers: 37.2

3) Jared Goff, Lions: 37.1

4) Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: 36

5) Lamar Jackson, Ravens: 35

Cue the Eagles fans in my mentions. (I love y'all and your avidity!) I am fully aware of Barkley's monster production last year: 345 carries, 2,005 yards, 5.8 yards per. Although my model forecasts similar efficiency from the three-time Pro Bowler (about 5.6 yards per rush), it does see his usage decreasing to about 275 carries. I know, that's a huge drop in attempts. I believe the Eagles will smartly monitor Barkley's touches throughout the season, but especially in the fourth quarter of games, which ultimately pays off in January and beyond. (Shameless plug: My win total article comes out soon!)

REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:

2) Derrick Henry, Ravens: 1,505

3) Bijan Robinson, Falcons: 1,488

4) Jonathan Taylor, Colts: 1,413

5) Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions: 1,387

(Note: De'Von Achane (calf) fell out of the top five due to the uncertainty around his availability to start the season.)

I had to triple-check this result, because my model typically doesn’t love offensive line changes, and the retirement of Frank Ragnow -- a potential future Hall of Famer -- left a massive hole for Detroit to fill this offseason. But Gibbs certainly has a nose for the end zone, having produced a whopping 26 rushing scores since entering the league in 2023. That total is just two shy of Derrick Henry's 28, which leads all non-QBs in that span -- but on 173 fewer rushing attempts. One of my favorite stats about Gibbs, though, is that he had the third most explosive runs (runs of 10-plus yards) last season, finishing behind only Saquon Barkley and Henry.

REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:

2) Jonathan Taylor, Colts: 12.1

3) Derrick Henry, Ravens: 12

4) Bijan Robinson, Falcons: 11

5) Josh Jacobs, Packers: 10

If you haven't seen Season 2 of Netflix's Quarterback docu-series, in which Joe Burrow is one of the featured QBs, you missed getting to know Ja'Marr's loving parents, Jimmy and Toleah Chase, who are some of my favorite people affiliated with the league. Whenever their son makes a catch or scores a touchdown, they like to say, "It's uno time." Per my model, they can expect to say it a lot this season.

REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:

2) Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions: 111

3) Justin Jefferson, Vikings: 109.4

4) CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys: 109

5) Brock Bowers, Raiders: 108

I wonder what the Chase family says when Ja'Marr earns YAC over expected, a metric he paced the league in last year (294 yards, per Next Gen Stats). Fun fact: I haven’t seen this big of a difference between the projected Nos. 1 and 2 in at least 10 seasons.

If you're looking for fantasy help beyond observations like "Ja'Marr Chase is really good," here are a couple nuggets to chew on:

1. Tee Higgins is projected to rack up 1,148 receiving yards this season, which would make him WR13 (if ranked by yards alone).
2. Nico Collins forecasts for 1,334 yards in 2025, producing more than 1,250 in 59 percent of simulations.

REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:

2) Justin Jefferson, Vikings: 1,598

3) Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions: 1,507

4) CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys: 1,486

5) Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars: 1,402

Does my gut say this total will probably be higher in reality? Yes. But this is why I model -- so I don’t get carried away. You can, however, take this entire article as justification to rank Chase as, you guessed it, numero uno in your fantasy draft. My highest-ranked rookie in terms of TD receptions is Travis Hunter with six -- the same projected total as Brock Bowers, who paces my tight end TD rankings. Which brings me to a tidbit I just had to work in somewhere, as clunky as it might be: Bowers forecasts for at least one rushing TD. 

REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:

2) Mike Evans, Buccaneers: 11

3) Justin Jefferson, Vikings: 10

4) Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions: 9.3

5) Tee Higgins, Bengals: 9

This is where the Bijan over Ja'Marr Chase fantasy argument holds the most weight, in my opinion. That said, I think it’s a silly debate, because you'd be stoked to land either guy, and both project to finish within four overall points of each other (well within the margin for error).

REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:

2) Christian McCaffrey, 49ers: 369

3) Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions: 332

4) Saquon Barkley, Eagles: 324

5) Ashton Jeanty, Raiders: 308

Last season, with Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr. sharing QB duties, Robinson only had one touchdown catch on 72 targets, with much of his receiving production stemming from balls caught behind the line of scrimmage. With Penix Jr. solidified as the team's starter this season, we can expect the dual-threat back to be a more dynamic pass-catcher in the red zone, leading to an uptick in receiving TDs.

Josh Jacobs and Ashton Jeanty are two guys whose results are interesting, but who don’t appear in the top five. Jacobs reached paydirt at least 10 times on the ground and added at least another score through the air in 58 percent of simulations (he’s my RB7), while Jeanty had at least seven rushing TDs and at least one receiving TD in the majority of sims. 

REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:

2) Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals: 14.1

3) Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions: 14

4) Saquon Barkley, Eagles: 13.3

5) Jonathan Taylor, Colts: 13.2

When forecasting individual sack totals, one team-wide characteristic to consider is offensive scoring potential. Squads that pile up points in bunches will likely induce their opponents to throw more in turn, which will then lead to a good volume of pass-rush attempts for the defense. Then there is the way that sacks tend to be dispersed throughout the D, with teams that historically feature one dominant pass rusher more likely to produce a leader in this category than teams that share the QB-chasing burden. For example, while the Broncos led the NFL with 63 sacks last season, they also had six different defenders log five-plus sacks, leaving no one with the chance to vie for individual bragging rights. Last season, the Lions were the NFL's top scoring offense, and Hutchinson was clearly the best pass rusher on the roster, finishing with more sacks (7.5) than anyone else despite playing in just five games, thanks to a broken leg. Now, he's healthy again, and still clearly the most capable QB chaser in Detroit. Much will be asked of him, and he will deliver -- at least, according to my model, which gives him 15-plus sacks in 57 percent of simulations. 

REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:

2) T.J. Watt, Steelers: 13

3) Myles Garrett, Browns: 12

4) Nick Bosa, 49ers: 11

5) Maxx Crosby, Raiders: 10

(NOTE: I purposely left off Trey Hendrickson and Micah Parsons for now, because there is not a practical way to account for their impact as long as their contract situations keep them in limbo.)

Interception totals are fickle, but this is still a fun category. Part of the problem with forecasting them is that opposing QBs are generally smart enough to not throw in the direction of defenders who are, by talent and skill level, best suited to pick the ball off. The logic of my model here is that the Ravens' defense will see a high volume of passes as their opponents attempt to keep pace with Baltimore's potent offense. The Ravens also have the NFL's second-highest-rated secondary, according to my model. Alexander's style of play and the potential volume of passes coming his way lead this projection. I can also make the case for Kerby Joseph, who paced the league with nine picks last season, to repeat as the top name in this category, but he comes in at No. 3, barely behind Xavier McKinney, who finished in second in 2024 with eight INTs.

REST OF MY PROJECTED TOP FIVE:

2) Xavier McKinney, Packers: 4

3) Kerby Joseph, Lions: 3.9

4) Jessie Bates, Falcons: 3.8

5) Derek Stingley Jr., Texans: 3.7