NFL Week 3 picks: Lions vs. Ravens on 'MNF' — score predictions, game analysis

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict the winner of every game in the 2025 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 3 NFL picks below.

The lines provided by DraftKings are locked as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 18.

MONDAY, SEPT. 22

Why Brooke picked the Ravens: One of these two juggernauts will be 1-2 next week. I don't love that. What I do love is the fact that we get to watch these two explosive offenses on the same field. Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson are tied for the most TD passes (six) this season, while Goff leads the league in completion percentage (80.6) and Jackson in passer rating (136.6). There are matchups and storylines galore here. But I'll keep it rather simple. Home-field advantage should play a major role. The Ravens have the highest win percentage (.763) in home prime-time games among all NFL franchises since 1970. Not to mention, their two-time league MVP is 7-2 with 22 pass TDs and zero(!) interceptions in Monday night games -- that's the most pass TDs without a pick by any player on a single day of the week all time. Shoutout to the NFL Research team. I can't go against a stat like that.

SUNDAY'S GAMES

Why Brooke picked the Falcons: The Panthers' offense came to life late in Week 2, with Bryce Young tossing three second-half TDs to nearly eke out a road win. It was an improvement from Week 1, but there's still a long way to go. Through two weeks, Young leads the NFL with five giveaways, no team has more turnovers than Carolina, and the offense has averaged 16 points per game (29th in the NFL). Atlanta must be licking its chops, especially after Raheem Morris' improved pass rush registered six sacks last week and is pressuring QBs at a rate of 46.3 percent, fourth-highest in the league this season. Now it gets another struggling QB in Young, who has been pressured 37 times (tied for most in the NFL) but thrown a league-high three TDs with two INTs when under pressure in 2025. The Falcons' offense also has an opportunity to keep building against an underwhelming Panthers D. I won't be surprised if we witness more magic from Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London, though the wideout could see a lot of Jaycee Horn on the outside. One thing I'm sure about: Bijan Robinson will be at the center of Atlanta's attack. Having just extended his streak of games with 90-plus scrimmage yards to eight, Robinson rushed for 143 yards in Week 2. He's only had one game with more ground yards in his pro career: In the 2024 regular-season finale, he racked up 170 yards against ... you guessed it, the Panthers.

Why Ali picked the Packers: Cleveland's defense expertly bottled up Joe Burrow and Derrick Henry in consecutive weeks, and all the team has to show for it is an 0-2 start, the NFL's third-worst point-differential and a public rebuke from its best player. The Browns' QB situation, which seemed bleak before the season even began, has been more dreadful than expected through two games. Joe Flacco currently sports the league's worst pass EPA at -23.9 -- more than 10 points less than the next-closest passer (J.J. McCarthy, -13.2) and nearly four times worse than the QB above him (Bryce Young, -6.4), per Next Gen Stats. Unsurprisingly, the 40-year-old Flacco has struggled against pressure, with his lack of mobility making him a real liability after the snap. He's managing a miserable -1.03 EPA/DB when pressured (second-worst, min. 40 attempts), with 0 TDs and 3 INTs, despite being blitzed at one of the lowest rates in the league. Guess who is really effective at generating pressure while only rushing four? Yep, Green Bay. About the only thing breaking in the Browns' favor is that this game is in Cleveland. If the already-overburdened Browns defense has to carry the offense for another four quarters, this one could get out of hand by the end.

Why Dan picked the Texans: Home-field advantage apparently does not exist when the Jaguars host the Texans. Houston has won 10 of its last 11 in Jacksonville, including each of the last seven. Seems cruel to the good people of Duval. Aside from that hard-to-ignore pattern, the Texans nearly beat a very good Bucs team in Week 2, while the Jaguars blew a lead to the Bengals on a day when Joe Burrow only played for the first three drives. If the reigning AFC South champions are going to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start, DeMeco Ryans' run defense must be better, while C.J. Stroud will have to be more precise. At this point, I have more trust in Ryans to cure what ails his team than I do in Liam Coen as he navigates his first season as a head coach. If Trevor Lawrence doesn't take care of the ball for the second week in a row, the Texans could pull away, but a narrow victory -- for one side or the other -- seems more likely. I just view Houston as the tougher squad right now.

Why Tom picked the Bengals: Evaluating an NFL game when the QB1s aren't in line to play is like trying to pick winners in a street race between two sensible minivans. And as someone who has logged many miles in sensible minivans, I find this kind of comforting. We're not worrying about high performance and thrilling speeds anymore; now we want to know who can corner safely and brake with prudence while getting solid mileage. Jake Browning and Zac Taylor have made sweet music solid easy-listening jams before, occasionally even hitting some high notes, as they did against this very team in December 2023, when they survived a surprisingly exciting battle with -- yep, you know it -- a journeyman QB propped up by Kevin O'Connell's coaching. On Sunday, the role that Nick Mullens occupied two years ago will be played by Carson Wentz -- and, crucially, that is not the only difference for the Vikings, who've had to contend with the absences of several key figures on both sides of the ball and will at least be without Aaron Jones and suspended WR Jordan Addison. Browning, meanwhile, still gets to work with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. While Brian Flores' defense must always be feared, Minnesota hasn't had to face a receiving corps like Cincinnati's yet this year and did just yield plenty of yardage to dynamic back Bijan Robinson. I won't be surprised if O'Connell makes Wentz look pretty good and the Bengals' D makes Wentz look even better, but I have slightly more trust right now in the Browning-Taylor combo.

Why Ali picked the Patriots: Plagued by injuries, Pittsburgh limps into this road matchup looking very un-Steelers-like. They can't run, and they can't consistently stop the run, which doesn't bode well against a physical and unrelenting team like New England. We saw the Steelers wear down in the second half last Sunday, giving up several chunk plays on the ground to the Seahawks just as they did to the Jets In Week 1. Through two weeks, Pittsburgh ranks last in rushing first downs allowed (21) and 29th in explosive runs allowed (10), which must be particularly annoying to Mike Tomlin because they lead the league in total run stuffs (16). So, yeah, consistency is lacking. Similar to the Jets, the Patriots have the speed and athleticism at QB and in the backfield to exploit the Steelers' aging and ailing defense, and a dominant front seven capable of making an already one-dimensional Pittsburgh offense that much more reliant on Aaron Rodgers' right arm. In Tomlin's 19 seasons at the helm, Pittsburgh has never given up 30 or more points in three consecutive games. And while I don't think the 2025 Steelers will be the first to do so, I do think they'll be responsible for a different -- but similarly unpleasant -- résumé blemish: Tomlin's first loss to a Mike Vrabel-coached/coordinated team (4-0).

Why Dan picked the Eagles: I'll never put it past Sean McVay, even while hobbled, to whip up a winning game plan with an opportunity to earn a signature victory. The Rams will have revenge on their minds after last season's playoff exit, no doubt. However, the Eagles are a tough out for any squad, even one at full strength. Unfortunately for the Rams, they are down a starting corner, stud DT Braden Fiske is dealing with an oblique injury and it's not clear if starting guard Steve Avila will return after sitting out in Week 2. Beating the defending AFC champions and reigning NFC West title winners in back-to-back weeks is a large ask for anyone, but if there's a team up to the challenge, it's probably Philadelphia. Maybe this is the day Jalen Hurts and the passing game get untracked. Even with the injuries, I don't expect it to be easy for the Eagles against a defense that has allowed one touchdown this season.

Why Gennaro picked the Buccaneers: Todd Bowles, Jets head coach from 2015 through '18, isn't just facing his former team on Sunday -- he's also playing host to a former pupil. Back in Aaron Glenn's playing days, Bowles served as his position coach on the Jets and Cowboys. It's a nice sideline subplot that gives this interconference tilt a dash of familiarity. Meanwhile, these Buccaneers are seeking something completely foreign to them: a 3-0 start. In each of the past four seasons, Tampa Bay has won its first two games … before suffering a loss. Like clockwork. Now, Jets QB Justin Fields (concussion) has already been ruled out of this game, which would seem to significantly stack the odds in the Bucs' favor. And yet, Tyrod Taylor is far more seasoned than your average backup, as a 15th-year pro with 58 NFL starts under his belt. That kind of experience comes in handy when you're going against Bowles' aggressive, exotic defense. As Glenn said on Wednesday, "There's no coverage, there's no pressure that he hasn't seen." Oh, and did I mention that the Bucs are dealing with fresh injuries of their own? Disruptive defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and reliable right guard Cody Mauch were both just lost for the season, while standout right tackle Luke Goedeke is hitting injured reserve. So, while I think Tampa ultimately slays the Week 3 beast, it doesn't come easy.

Why Tom picked the Colts: Indy's hot start to the season turned this matchup from a shrug-inducing AFC South coin flip into a test for both sides, with Daniel Jones and Co. seeking to prove they are Really Really For Real and the Titans getting a third straight chance to see how they measure up against a likely(?) playoff contender. As was true going into Week 1, I still would not be sorry to see Cam Ward pull off an upset for his first NFL win, which would no doubt be all the sweeter if it yanked a divisional rival a little closer to Earth. I'm just not sure the Titans can get within reaching distance of the Colts in the first place, thanks in part to a banged-up line that has already been party to a league-high 11 sacks for the rookie. Then there is the way Jonathan Taylor's penchant for gobbling up rushing yards (5.5 per carry) aligns with Tennessee's bad habit of giving them away (5.5 allowed per carry, third-most in the NFL entering Week 3). The Colts' surprisingly steady drumbeat of success continues for another week.

Why Ali picked the Commanders: The Raiders enter this cross-country affair on short rest, needing to rebound after a brutal offensive outing on Monday night. So far, Vegas has been unable to unlock rookie Ashton Jeanty, who ranks bottom-five among backs in several rushing efficiency metrics. The lack of a functioning ground game has unsurprisingly put undue pressure on Geno Smith and his bevy of No. 2 receivers, as well as the team's defense (which has played admirably thus far). If Jeanty stalls again this weekend, I'm worried the same could be true for Geno -- particularly against a Commanders defense that ranks second overall in pressure percentage through Week 2 (48.1%, per NGS). Washington, meanwhile, is bouncing back from a lopsided prime-time loss of its own, and potentially without reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels (knee). Marcus Mariota would get the start in Daniels' absence, which, while a step down, perhaps isn't as steep of one as it might seem. In three appearances for the Commanders last year, Mariota went 34-of-44 passing, with a 4:0 TD-to-INT ratio, 92 rushing yards and one rushing score. So, even if Washington is forced to roll with its QB2, I think I ultimately like the home team on nine days' rest more than the visiting squad with a suspect ground game. But I certainly wouldn't write off Geno & Co. from securing their second East Coast upset of this young season.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: Commanders coach Dan Quinn announced on Friday that Jayden Daniels has been ruled out of Sunday's game.

Why Dan picked the Chargers: I wasn't expecting the Chargers to steamroll through formidable AFC West foes to open the season, but here we are now. They've entertained us -- twice in prime time -- and now get a chance to complete the divisional trifecta against a Broncos team that might be feeling a little off-kilter right now. Denver had shown some troubling signs before a potentially season-altering penalty set up Indianapolis' game-winning field goal last week. The defense, thought to be the strength of the team entering the season, gave up 473 yards and scores on six possessions to the Daniel Jones-led Indy offense. Bo Nix killed a fourth-quarter scoring chance by throwing his third INT of the young season, this one deep in Colts territory. I'm not sure everything clicks back into place one week later against what's been one of the league's most impressive teams, albeit one weakened by the loss of Khalil Mack. A better defensive effort is the first step to a bounce-back from Denver, but DC Vance Joseph 1-3 all-time against Justin Herbert, with the only win coming in a game the QB left early due to a finger injury that ended his season. It will certainly help Joseph's cause if Ladd McConkey, who missed Wednesday's practice with a biceps injury, is a lesser version of himself or, far worse, unable to go.

EDITOR'S UPDATE: McConkey was a full participant in Thursday's practice, per the Chargers' injury report.

Why Tom picked the Seahawks: Because of one stat that looks especially ominous for New Orleans: Seattle has held its opponents to exactly as many points per game (17) as Spencer Rattler and Co. have managed to scrape together. OK, well, and then there's the Seahawks' ability to get pressure on nearly half (a league-high 49.4% entering Week 3) of their pass-rush snaps, per Next Gen Stats. Oh, plus the fact that Seattle's passer rating allowed (76.6) sits nearly 35 points below New Orleans' mark (111.3). So it turns out there are plenty of reasons to pick the Seahawks, not the least of which is the groove they appear to have gotten in under Sam Darnold last week. The Saints, meanwhile, are still very much not in a groove and would surely like to give Rattler his first actual career win instead of losses that are merely less bad than the drubbings he suffered through as a rookie. And that just does not feel like an ideal way to head into battle against a more talented opponent with a chance to build some momentum.

Why Gennaro picked the Bears: Caleb Williams often flashes the enticing traits that made him a No. 1 overall pick, but he remains a square peg trying to fit into the round hole of an NFL offensive structure. A freestyling playmaker during his Heisman Trophy-winning college career, Caleb constantly looks like he's dying to escape the pocket and create. But that approach just doesn't work at this level, at least not routinely. Chicago hired Ben Johnson to break this horse, a true thoroughbred in terms of pedigree and raw ability. Will we begin to see the fruits of this labor on Sunday? With a Micah Parsons-less Cowboys defense coming to town, I think we will! Dallas just let Russell Wilson cook up 450 passing yards and three touchdowns. The interesting thing is that the Cowboys' D is coordinated by Matt Eberflus, Williams' head coach during his ill-fated rookie season in Chicago. It's a juicy storyline that could redound to Dallas' benefit, presuming Eberflus is intimately familiar with the young quarterback's flaws. Then again, Johnson is quite familiar with Eberflus' defense, and he isn’t afraid to say it. You know Williams wants to put points on the board, and he'll likely need to -- Chicago's leaky defense is ripe for the cooking, with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens undoubtedly salivating over the Bears' ailing secondary. In a back-and-forth shootout at Soldier Field, Caleb and Co. come out on top, calming the sportstalk airwaves in the Windy City.

Why Brooke picked the 49ers: This is one of two Week 2 games featuring a pair of 2-0 teams. However, there are plenty of questions circling both of these NFC West squads. Are the Cardinals even good -- having wins over the winless Saints and Panthers? How many injury setbacks can San Francisco endure? For the Niners, who continue to get solid contributions from backups in big spots, Brock Purdy could return this week after he missed one game with toe/shoulder injuries. But if he can't go, backup Mac Jones will again be tasked with operating Kyle Shanahan's offense. Jones looked comfortable last time out -- save for a few unsettling moments -- but I still expect to see a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey. Robert Saleh's defense should take care of business against a Cardinals team that has put up less than 300 yards of total offense in each of its first two games. In fact, the Cards have put together drives of at least 10 plays just three times (less than 20 percent). They'll struggle to stay competitive if that doesn't change.Kyler Murray has been slightly more efficient in 2025, often looking in tight end Trey McBride's direction, but that will go under the radar if the offense isn't sustaining drives on the regular. Despite San Francisco battling the injury bug, it's well-positioned to get the job done at home against a club that just hasn't shown me enough yet.

Why Ali picked the Chiefs: This game ultimately comes down to trust. Do I believe Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will make enough mid-week adjustments to overcome the offense's lingering deficiencies (protection, unreliable pass catchers, ineffective backfield) against a flawed-but-front-heavy Giants defense? Or, do I think Russell Wilson can repeat his vintage performance from Week 2 (putting Week 1's stinker firmly in the rearview) against a still-stingy Steve Spagnuolo defense? Yeah, I'm gonna go with Big Red, No. 15 and Spags in this one. I expect the Chiefs -- who have allowed only one completion of 20-plus yards this season -- to shut down Russ' deep-passing attack, forcing the Giants to run the ball and operate underneath, where Wilson has struggled in recent years. The veteran QB has been one of the least effective passers on throws of 9 yards or fewer since the start of last season, owning the worst EPA/DB (-.09) and second-worst CPOE (-4%) of any QB during that span (min. 325 attempts). The Chiefs might not be all the way fixed on Sunday night, but they'll be good enough to earn their first win of the season.

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Gennaro picked the Bills: Two games into his fourth season as Dolphins head coach, Mike McDaniel is fielding increasingly dire questions about his team’s culture and his own job security. The vibes in Miami couldn't be much worse. McDaniel's offense, which lived at the cutting edge of the sport in his first couple years on the job, has grown stale. Concerns about Tua Tagovailoa's health are morphing into criticisms of his play, while Tyreek Hill feels like a ticking time bomb of discontent. Unfortunately, this team's in even worse shape on the other side of the ball. The Dolphins' defense cannot get a stop. No, seriously: The Fins allowed a scoring drive in each of their first 10 defensive possessions of this season, finally making their first true stand in the third quarter of Week 2. And with all due respect to the Colts and Patriots, Miami's first two opponents weren't exactly established offensive juggernauts. But the Bills sure are. After rolling up 900 yards of offense and 71 points over the past two Sundays, Buffalo rolls into this Thursday night affair with a six-game win streak over Miami in which the Bills have averaged a healthy 32.7 ppg. Furthermore, the Dolphins haven't won in Buffalo since Christmas Eve in 2016, a few days after Josh Allen completed his first season as Wyoming's starting quarterback. Now the reigning MVP is at the peak of his powers, poised to pound a division rival he owns (13-2 with 45 total touchdowns vs. Miami).

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